Australia and New Zealand Bank: Summer natural gas supply disruptions may force demand cuts.

Analysts from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) stated that if the natural gas market disruptions related to the Middle East war continue into the summer, market rebalancing may be achieved through weakening demand rather than increasing supply. Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari stated, "This is an unpleasant but effective 'mitigation' measure: industrial production cuts, fuel switching as much as possible, and demand response in the electricity market." Demand substitution is already underway, with natural gas-intensive users leaning towards using more coal for power generation. These analysts noted, "Japan has indicated that it will expand the use of such power plants." "Germany is considering reactivating mothballed coal-fired power plants to curb high electricity prices." ANZ stated that the April Newcastle coal futures price has risen to $144 per tonne, the highest price for the near-month contract since October 2024.