"The higher the energy prices rise, the more aggressive the European Central Bank will be in raising interest rates" - this logic has already been rejected by the market.

On March 30th, Sina Finance reported that European natural gas futures opened higher, but did not boost market bets on the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank, as traders are weighing the overall impact of the Middle East conflict on the economy. The market currently expects the bank to raise interest rates by about 75 basis points this year, lower than the peak of about 85 basis points last Thursday. As traders increasingly consider the negative impact of the conflict on economic growth, rather than just on inflation, this could herald a certain market trend in the future. Last Friday, similar signs appeared in the US interest rate scenario, as traders lowered their expectations for monetary tightening.