UBS: Expects the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond to rise above 4.5%

Reinout De Bock, head of UBS's European interest rate strategy, expects that as market speculation about future interest rate hikes in the United States heats up in the coming months, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will "at least" test around 4.5%. At the same time, German bond yields above 3% are seen as having value in terms of allocation. In all of the bank's forecast scenarios, "the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds will test higher levels in 2026, before falling back below current spot levels in 2027".