Analysis: The Fed is expected to ignore the surge in inflation and focus on growth.

date
27/03/2026
Erik Aarts of Touchstone said that the Federal Reserve may currently not pay much attention to the soaring inflation, but instead focus on potential growth slowdown, therefore the possibility of interest rates remaining unchanged for a long time is greater than a rate hike. Since the outbreak of the Iran war nearly a month ago, speculation in the futures market for rate hikes this year has been increasing. "Our view is a bit different," Aarts said. "The possible result here is demand destruction and growth slowdown." If core inflation begins to rise, the situation may change. Due to this uncertainty, Aarts has slightly adjusted his asset allocation from "neutral" to "overweight" duration, increasing the target duration from 4.5 years to 5 years, while maintaining exposure to the seven to ten year maturity range.