Capital Economics: The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this year, as concerns over the exchange rate outweigh concerns over energy.

Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics Macro has stated in a report that the Swiss National Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year. He mentioned that the rise in energy prices this year will drive up overall inflation in Switzerland, but he believes that, given the small weight of energy in the consumer price basket in the country and the low level of dependence on natural gas in Swiss households, the impact will be smaller than in the Eurozone. In fact, the Swiss National Bank seems more concerned about the inflation slowdown effect of a strong exchange rate rather than energy prices. Allen-Reynolds said that only in the case of a war leading to significant global price pressures outside of energy, and transmitted through core inflation rates, would the Swiss National Bank consider raising rates. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that market prices reflect expectations of the Swiss National Bank raising rates at least once in 2026.