Huatai Securities: Focus on the green fuel sector.

Huatai Securities research report indicates that the market consensus believes NDC is a long-term concept, the price of surplus green certificates is difficult to rise, and green electricity operators are only "debt-like" defensive assets. Huatai Securities believes: 1. There are only 2-4 years left in the countdown to peak carbon emissions in 2028-2030, and NDC may become an annual assessment hard constraint; 2. Mechanism electricity quantity transfer and mismatch of effective period lead to actual deliverable new certificate supply exceeding demand, with the proportion of new certificate trading in February 2026 already reaching 84%, the supply-demand pattern has reversed; 3. The market has not priced in the "growth attributes" of green electricity operators, green certificate income has been made explicit, and is expected to drive the upward revaluation of A/H-share green electricity valuations. Environmental value reassessment will unfold along three main lines, benefiting green electricity operators and high-energy-consuming leading green electricity directly, with a focus on the green fuel sector.