The oil crisis exacerbates the risk of inflation.

Goldman Sachs warns that the conflict in Iran could potentially reignite inflation in the United States by driving up oil prices. If supplies are disrupted, it is expected that Brent crude oil prices will reach $105 per barrel in March and $115 per barrel in April, approaching historical highs in the worst-case scenario. A 10% increase in oil prices could cause overall inflation to rise by 0.2 percentage points. Rising costs of fertilizers and metals could also lead to an increase in food prices by around 1.5%. Goldman Sachs currently predicts inflation to be at 3.1% by the end of 2026, with a 30% chance of economic recession. The possibility of rate cuts still exists, but it will decrease if oil prices continue to surge.