Before Trump spoke out, crude oil futures experienced abnormal trading, and trade in fertilizers, sulfur, and helium gas was almost halted.
Local time on Monday, although Trump stated that the US and Iran had started negotiations to end the Middle East conflict, the Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, Kalibaf, denied on social media that they were in dialogue with the US. With the continuous emergence of conflicting news and even contradictory information, the market has also become confused and unable to form clear expectations. Against the background of many uncertainties, the only thing that can be certain is that some long-term damage has already been done. Local time on Monday, the Director of the International Energy Agency, Birol, stated that over 40 energy assets in 9 countries in the Middle East have suffered "severe or extremely severe" damage. More importantly, this not only affects oil and gas, but also includes key "arteries" of the global economy such as fertilizers, sulfur, and helium. The trade of these goods has almost stopped, which will have serious consequences on the global economy. Lastly, it is worth noting that CNBC observed abnormal trading activity in S&P 500 index futures and crude oil futures a few minutes before the market fluctuated due to Trump's post overnight, around 6:50 AM New York time. There were no obvious market catalysts at that time, and this wave of trading also drew market attention.
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