CITIC Securities Overseas Macro: Should not make one-sided bets on assets that have already experienced high volatility.

Citibank's research report pointed out that in March, the European Central Bank maintained the three key interest rates as scheduled, adding wording describing the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict, raising inflation forecasts for the next three years, and lowering growth forecasts for the next two years. The derivative market has priced in expectations of two to three interest rate hikes by the ECB this year, but Citibank believes this expectation is too aggressive. Following a series of news including hawkish comments from Powell, attacks on Iranian gas fields, and assaults on Qatari LNG facilities, the market once again traded inflation risks. Citibank believes it is not appropriate to "bet one-way" on assets that have already experienced high volatility.