LPR has remained unchanged for ten consecutive months, experts say the urgency of a short-term rate cut is limited.
On the 20th, the quoted interest rates for loans in the market of March were released as scheduled, with rates of 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for terms of five years or more, both unchanged for the tenth consecutive month. "It can be seen that, although the overall loose attitude is clear, in essence, the pace of loosening depends on the repair of the real economy by the People's Bank of China, as well as the progress of credit expansion," said Mingming, chief economist at CITIC Securities. Observing the various fundamental data released since March, including inflation, exports, credit, and economic data, there are bright spots, in other words, the urgency for interest rate cuts may not be high at present. Looking ahead, Mingming expects that monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, but with the evident impact of input inflation such as oil prices, the use of general loosening tools will also pay more attention to the appropriate window of opportunity. Considering the overall trend of macroeconomic finance, Wang Qing judges that the possibility of implementing comprehensive policy rate cuts within the year is still relatively high, with the timing potentially around the middle of the year, with a reduction of around 10-20 basis points, which will then drive the LPR downwards. This is also an important point of effort this year to boost consumption, expand investment, and effectively hedge against external uncertainties.
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