Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities: It is expected that there will be 1-2 interest rate cuts and 1 reserve requirement ratio cut throughout the year.

Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities and Chief Analyst of FICC, said during the CITIC Securities Spring Capital Market Forum 2026 that China's real GDP growth rate in 2026 may remain around 4.9%, with the possibility of a "V-shaped" growth trajectory throughout the year. Inflationary pressures are expected to help drive a rapid rebound in nominal GDP, with the GDP deflator possibly transitioning from negative to positive. Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to see moderate expansion, with the deficit ratio maintained at 4%. There is room for "flexible and efficient use" of monetary policy, with interest rate cuts likely 1-2 times during the year and a reserve requirement ratio cut expected once. Structural tools will play a greater role. Equity assets are expected to have strong cost-effectiveness in the context of recovery and rising inflation. Short-term government bond yields are expected to fluctuate around 1.8%, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to moderately appreciate in a weak dollar environment.