Key points of Powell's speech at a glance

1. Core premise of rate cut: Rate cut will only be considered if there is sustained progress in inflation; it is expected that inflation will continue to fall, but the decline will not be as much as previously expected. 2. Rate policy stance: The current policy stance is correct and appropriate; the Fed will make rate decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, without setting a predetermined policy path. 3. Dot plot and economic forecasts: Quarterly economic forecasts are not set in stone, policymakers are willing to adjust their dot plot expectations; due to the high uncertainty brought by the Middle East conflict, the latest round of economic forecasts "feels a bit like guesswork." 4. Judgment on core drivers of inflation: High inflation is largely due to rising commodity prices and tariff factors, theoretically, tariffs have a one-time impact on inflation. 5. Impact of energy prices and Middle East situation: Recent increases in energy prices will push up overall inflation, oil price fluctuations may affect core inflation indicators, and long-term high oil prices will have a negative impact on consumption. 6. Inflation expectation management: The Fed will closely monitor inflation expectations and is committed to anchoring inflation expectations at the 2% level. 7. Economic and labor market assessment: The U.S. economy remains strong amid various challenges, labor demand has weakened, and there are clear downward risks in the labor market. 8. Clear statement on stagflation: The current U.S. economy is not in a state of stagflation, the term "stagflation" will only be used in much more severe economic conditions. 9. Independence of the Fed: The independence of the central bank enables the Fed to fulfill its responsibilities, and its independence has gained broad support from the Democratic and Republican parties in Congress. 10. Personal appointment arrangements: Will not leave the Fed's Board of Governors before the end of the investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice; if the nominee for Fed Chair is not confirmed at the end of the term, will serve as acting Chair temporarily; decision on whether to remain in the committee position will be made after the Department of Justice investigation is concluded.