Goldman Sachs said that the impact on refined oil products is even greater than on crude oil.

Goldman Sachs said that the Middle East conflict is causing the largest oil supply shock on record, with refined oil prices rising more rapidly than crude oil. This impact is mainly transmitted through three channels: disturbances to refined oil exports in the Persian Gulf, severely affecting naphtha in Asia and aviation fuel in Europe; refinery shutdowns; and reduced supply of medium and heavy crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting global diesel, aviation fuel, and fuel oil production. The bank's analysts added that rising shipping costs, increasing natural gas costs, and trade restrictions could further push prices higher.