CITIC Construction Investment Securities: It is expected that the credit growth rate for the full year of 2026 will still be maintained at around 7% to 8%.

CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that government bonds continue to play a leading role, credit issuance in social financing and off-balance sheet financing have rebounded, and social financing has increased on a year-on-year basis, which is in line with expectations. In February, corporate credit issuance showed marginal improvement, with some optimization in the structure of corporate credit. Retail credit issuance remains sluggish due to the impact of the Spring Festival, and it is expected that macroeconomic recovery and policy coordination efforts will drive demand recovery. M1 growth rate has rebounded, M2 growth rate remains stable at a high level, and the M2-M1 scissor difference has narrowed to 3.1%. In 2026, the positive fiscal policy tone and relatively loose monetary policy will continue, and government bonds will remain an important driver of social financing growth. It is expected that the credit growth rate for the whole year of 2026 will still be maintained at around 7%-8%, and the real improvement in the fundamentals of banks still depends on further improvement in credit demand and economic expectations.