Oxford Research Institute: Continued soaring oil prices may impact global GDP.

Ben May and Ryan Sweet of the Oxford Economics Research Institute stated in a report that world oil prices could skyrocket to around $140 per barrel within two months, along with a significant increase in natural gas prices and other spillover effects, which could potentially lead to some world economies falling into a mild recession. Simulations of such an event show that by the end of 2026, global GDP could decrease by 0.7%, with the Eurozone, UK, and Japan experiencing mild contractions, "while the US approaches a temporary standstill." They said that the strength of the subsequent recovery will depend on the speed of the rebound in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the rate of easing of oil prices, supply chain pressures, and financial market conditions. They added that a less severe scenario, where oil prices remain at $100 over two months, "would result in a small decrease in global GDP growth through pushing up inflation, but could avoid a recession."