Morgan Stanley raises its price expectations for European natural gas due to Europe's need to supplement liquefied natural gas.

Morgan Stanley has raised its price expectations for European natural gas for the remainder of the year, as the region needs to attract LNG inflows during the summer to replenish inventory. Analysts including Martin Rats stated in a report on March 12 that the bank expects prices in the second quarter to be $23 per million British thermal units, up from the previous forecast of $16; for the third quarter, the expectation is $19, up from $10; and for the fourth quarter, the expectation is $12, up from $9. The bank also raised its price expectations for 2027. Assuming Qatar stops production for at least one month, this would lead to a reduction in supply of 8 million tons and completely offset the expected supply surplus for 2026. The bank has factored in a risk premium in its forecast, with a significant upward risk in summer natural gas prices. "If Ras Laffan Port shuts down for several months, it could trigger a supply squeeze similar to that of 2022," and the Dutch TTF natural gas price may exceed 100 euros per megawatt-hour.