Guojin Securities: At present, the oil market is driven by geopolitical risks, and it is expected that high volatility will continue.

Guojin Securities research report indicates that the current oil market is being driven by geopolitical risks, and it is expected that high volatility will continue. The market has priced in a geopolitical risk premium of 8-10 dollars per barrel, and the open interest structure shows strong bullish sentiment. Price equals fundamental price + geopolitical premium, with supply and demand moving downward while the premium moves upward. There are three possible scenarios regarding the situation in Iran: 1) Limited strikes, with prices spiking before falling back down; 2) Full-scale war, with extreme spikes followed by a retreat; 3) Long-term conflict, leading to sustained high oil prices. It is possible that there will continue to be inventory accumulation in 2026, as demand has been impacted by rising prices. With the midterm election goal in mind, there is a high probability of oil prices peaking before declining.