Xinhu Futures: Disruptions in the supply chain due to the Middle East situation have stimulated the rise in aluminum prices.

Xinhu Futures: Last Saturday, the United States launched a military strike against Iran, which led to Iran retaliating and causing chaos in the Middle East. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a halt in the movement of vessels through the strait, blocking the flow of energy and leading to a sharp increase in prices of commodities such as crude oil. The price of aluminum has also significantly strengthened. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global aluminum supply, and news of an attack on Bahrain's aluminum industry was reported on Monday. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is around 7 million tons, with a production volume of 6.4 million tons in 2025, accounting for 8.4% of the global production. Most of the electrolytic aluminum produced in the Middle East, except for Iran, is exported to the United States and Europe, while some of Iran's production is shipped to other Asian countries. The blockage of these exports will lead to a tightening of overseas supply. Furthermore, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the supply of raw materials to electrolytic aluminum plants in the Middle East, as alumina and other additives also need to pass through the strait to enter various aluminum plants. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues for a long time, aluminum plants in the Middle East may face a shortage of raw materials and be forced to reduce production, leading to a substantial decrease in output and ultimately a decrease in global supply, thus pushing up aluminum prices. The current situation in the Middle East has not shown signs of easing, and there is great uncertainty in the short term. The actual impact of the situation on the production and import/export of aluminum in the Gulf region remains to be seen. In a situation of uncertainty, aluminum prices may remain strong.