Ambon Investments: The spike in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict may only reflect a "temporary supply shock".

Anbon Investment stated that although the Middle East conflict has increased the upside risk of oil prices, a key factor is that the Trump administration has no intention of triggering a "global oil price shock" before the November US midterm elections. Anbon Investment's emerging market economist Michael Langham wrote in a report that the base scenario is that "oil prices are expected to fall back from their highs in about a week, and the global macroeconomic outlook will not be severely disrupted, although risk sensitivity will increase." Views on monetary policy remain unchanged. It is expected that the Bank of Japan and other regional central banks that will announce decisions in the coming weeks will maintain interest rates. The initial spike in energy prices should not affect the Bank of Japan's considerations, as this may "prove to be only a temporary supply shock." For Asian markets, the initial impact may be a stronger US dollar, higher precious metal prices, and downward pressure on the currencies of energy-importing countries.