Goldman Sachs: Iran conflict could lead to an $18 per barrel premium on crude oil risk.

Goldman Sachs has set the real-time risk premium for crude oil prices at $18 per barrel, which corresponds to the evaluation of the impact of a six-week complete interruption of oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The report states that this risk premium is equivalent to the market pricing in a daily disruption of 2.3 million barrels of global supply within one year. The premium assessment is based on a 15% increase in the IG Group's WTI retail price over the weekend. Goldman Sachs stated, "Although our forecasted risks tend to be on the upside, history shows that price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks or temporary supply disruptions may be short-lived."