CITIC Securities: Focus on the impact of post-holiday passenger flow overlap, 2026 may see a significant improvement in the profit statement of major airlines.

Guosen Securities research report believes that in the first 20 days before the Spring Festival travel season, the year-on-year growth rates of civil aviation, railways, and road passenger volumes are +5.4%/+4.9%/+5.4% respectively. The report is focused on the superimposed effect of passenger flow peaks on the sixth day and the sixteenth day after the holiday, and predicts that the Spring Festival passenger flow of civil aviation will increase by 5.5% to 6.0%. Over the next two months, positive demand factors are expected to continue to manifest, and the report continues to emphasize that "major airlines may see a significant improvement in their profit statements by 2026." The performance of the Spring Festival travel data shows three characteristics: 1) The growth rate of civil aviation passenger flow is "low in the beginning and high later", with the stimulating effect of the second holiday trip becoming more prominent, and it is expected that the post-holiday passenger flow will be superimposed. 2) The negative factors on the Japan route have basically reached a bottom, and the reduction in flights is mainly diverted to South Korea and Southeast Asia. With the expansion of visa-free policies, China Travel maintains a high level of prosperity. "Flying to distant places, flying internationally, flying to emerging markets" are expected to contribute to airline revenue continuously in 2026. 3) It is expected that Spring Festival ticket prices will increase slightly year-on-year, and attention should be paid to the transmission of high load factors to ticket price elasticity driven by the marginal variables of "anti-insider squeeze" in the civil aviation industry. The report once again emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the turning point of airline profitability, and continues to recommend airlines with significant cyclical elasticity and airlines with high performance certainty.