Zhang Jun: Farewell to economic "temperature difference", we must avoid excessive structural growth.

The dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University stated in an article that by 2025, the actual growth rate of GDP will be 5%, while the nominal growth rate will be only 3.9%, due to a GDP inflation rate of -1.1%. This results in a situation where the actual GDP growth rate is high while the overall economy is in a somewhat cold and contractionary state. It's like the number displayed on a thermometer doesn't match people's perception, creating a temperature difference. There is only one scenario that would lead to such a "temperature difference" - when growth is too structured and too concentrated in a few relatively independent areas. Although the expansion of these areas may increase the actual GDP growth rate, it may not generate a macroeconomic balance and stability, and in extreme cases, a phenomenon known as "growth without development" may occur. Overall, the macroeconomic policy framework has not yet anchored on prices and employment, and has not truly focused on changes in nominal GDP value. Policy tools still mainly focus on credit quantity and structural monetary policy, adjustments in interest rates and exchange rates lack an anchor on prices, making it difficult to ensure the achievement of a 2% inflation target.