CITIC Securities: Year-on-year PPI may turn positive in the second quarter of 2026.

The research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that based on the optimistic expectations for the prices of non-ferrous metals in the first half of the year and adjustments in the expectations for crude oil prices, we predict that, under an optimistic scenario, PPI year-on-year may turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, with a trend of "first up, then down" for the whole year. CPI year-on-year fell to +0.2% under the effects of "Chinese New Year misalignment" and "seasonal decline in vegetable prices," performing lower than market expectations. Core CPI showed a differentiation feature of "strong core commodity prices, weak core service prices," with the super-seasonal rise in the CPI of the three major durable consumer goods possibly related to the supportive effect of government subsidies on durable goods prices. In 2026, a weight adjustment is expected for CPI and PPI, but the overall impact on the two major price indicators may be relatively limited from a technical perspective.