Zhongjin: It is expected that the future expansion speed of banks will slow down, which may be a major trend.

The Zhongjin Research Report states that the continuity of the monetary policy report issued by the central bank this time is strong, in line with the direction of "improving quality and efficiency" set forth in the Central Economic Work Conference, rather than simply focusing on loose monetary measures. It is believed that what truly deserves attention is not just the changes in the wording of the monetary policy report this time, but more importantly, an important trend in the combination of China's monetary policy: how the policy combination of the central bank not expanding its balance sheet while commercial banks expanding theirs will evolve next. Considering the capital constraints of banks, it is expected that the speed of bank balance sheet expansion will slow down in the future or may be a general trend. Faced with the slowdown of bank balance sheet expansion and the acceleration of non-bank balance sheet expansion, the monetary policy still needs to ensure that the financial system supports fiscal expansion and stabilizes government bond interest rates. At the same time, the central bank may need to ensure the stability of the financial market through more active open market operations or reserve requirement cuts, and pay more attention to the transmission effects of interest rate policies, especially for key weak sectors.