Great Eastern Bank: Gold's "long bull market" temporarily rests, breaking below the 55-day moving average signals a change.

date
03/02/2026
Quek Ser Leang, Senior Technical Strategist of the Global Economic and Market Research Department at Dahua Bank, pointed out in a research report that based on technical analysis, the era of "intense and sustained" rise in gold prices may have come to an end recently. Quek noted that spot gold fell below the 55-day moving average on Monday for the first time since August 2025, a technical signal that typically indicates a pause in the dominant uptrend. Additionally, he observed that the daily level of the moving average convergence divergence has entered negative territory, and the daily relative strength index is currently falling from overbought levels. He added that these technical trends suggest that the recent strong upward pressure may have eased for the time being.
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According to Bloomberg, the core issue of this "slow" selloff of Bitcoin is that the investors who were originally expected to become the most stable buying group did not continue to enter the market. Glassnode data shows that investors who entered the market through the US Bitcoin ETF had an average buying cost of about $84,100. Currently, with Bitcoin hovering around $78,500, this group is experiencing roughly a 8%-9% paper loss. This is not the first time ETF investors have been in a floating loss. Analysts pointed out back in November last year when Bitcoin briefly fell below $89,600 (which was the average cost range for ETF investors at the time) that this would be a key test of the "belief intensity" of the new mainstream investors. Since then, with the inflow of funds in early 2024 remaining profitable, the overall average cost of ETF has decreased, but later investors entering the market have all suffered losses. From the peak, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 35% since the high in 2025 and briefly fell below $77,000 in a low-liquidity trading environment over the weekend. Analysts believe this is a result of multiple factors: drying up of funds, decreased market liquidity, and overall weakening macro attractiveness. Bitcoin has failed to respond to traditional bullish factors such as the weakening US dollar or geopolitical risks, and its "decoupling" from other assets has made its trend increasingly directionless. The biggest difference between the sharp drop in October and the current downturn now is the market sentiment: there is no panic, only "absence". The market frenzy that pushed Bitcoin above $125,000 in 2025 came from the highly enthusiastic expectations of regulation, institutional entry, and bullish retail base formation. However, after the liquidation of billions of dollars in leveraged positions in October, those buyers who once drove the market have chosen to stand still and watch from the sidelines.
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