GF Securities: Credit currency crisis and geopolitical fragmentation support gold. The long-term bullish logic remains unchanged.

Since January, gold has shown a wide upward trend. As of January 28th, domestic spot gold of 99.99% purity is reported at 1137.35 yuan/gram, an increase of 15.03% from the beginning of the month. The main drivers of the rise in gold are concerns about the reliability of the traditional credit currency system, the decline in the US dollar index, and geopolitical fragmentation risks. Firstly, Trump continues to pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign early, impacting the independence of the Federal Reserve in interest rate decisions. Secondly, the US's actions to seize Venezuelan oil and seek control of Greenland through tariffs have raised global concerns about US dollar assets, with Trump recently stating that the dollar is returning to its proper level, which supports the weakening US dollar and gold. Lastly, the delay in the Eastern European peace framework and renewed Middle East geopolitical disturbances, with Iran as a representative, highlight the safe-haven value of gold. Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty and central bank gold purchases continue to support the bottom of the gold market, but caution is needed to guard against profit-taking pullbacks after rapid rises.