Guosen Securities: Natural rubber prices are expected to rise easily and fall hard in 2026.

Guosen Securities released a research report stating that in Q1, major natural rubber producing areas around the world will gradually enter the tapping season, and after the Spring Festival is the critical start-up season for domestic tire production. Therefore, the short-term rhythm is expected to be dominated by the industry's attributes, with prices greatly influenced by macro factors. The key focus is on the downstream production performance after the Spring Festival and the catalyzation of the petrochemical chain. In the long term, the price of natural rubber has basically confirmed a long-term turning point since the new tapping season in May 2023, while the downstream is on the eve of the outbreak of AI technology revolution, with a new cycle ready to be unleashed. In the short term, the rising price of synthetic rubber in 2026 will boost valuation, and in the long term, production capacity bottlenecks will become apparent, making it easier to rise than fall. The core recommendation of the bank is Hainan Rubber.