German researchers say that the United States has almost borne all the additional costs of tariffs.

A German economic think tank has stated that 96% of the tariff costs are borne by American importers and consumers. Researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy analyzed over 25 million shipping records covering nearly $4 trillion worth of US imports. They reported that by 2025, US customs revenue had increased by around $200 billion, but foreign exporters only absorbed about 4% of the tariff burden. They found that despite a decrease in trade volume, export prices did not decrease. A comparison with data from India and Brazil showed that exporters did not lower prices to offset the additional US tariffs, indicating that they could redirect their goods elsewhere. The researchers stated, "If exporters absorbed the tariffs, their prices in the US would have decreased relative to other markets - but this is not the case."