Guan Tao: The general market expectation is that the actual GDP growth target for China in 2026 may be between 4.5% and 5%.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2025. In response to this, the chief global economist of China Merchants Securities, Guan Tao, stated that there are three major bright spots in the operation of the Chinese economy in 2025: firstly, despite internal and external pressures, major economic indicators have met their annual targets; secondly, there has been a noticeable change in the macroeconomic narrative, with highlights including a revival in consumption and technological innovation; thirdly, the stock and foreign exchange markets have withstood external shocks and are operating well. Looking ahead, it is widely expected that the GDP growth target for 2026 will be set in the range of 4.5% to 5%. Currently, inflation levels are low and there is still room for improvement in the job market, indicating that the economy is still operating below its potential level. It is necessary to continue with both policy support and reform and innovation, and implement more proactive macroeconomic policies. China's expansion of domestic demand will help increase import demand, which is positive for the global economy.