J.P. Morgan: Short-term pressure on silver eased but still faces multiple risks.

According to the Wind Trade Platform, JPMorgan Chase released a report stating that the latest US Section 232 executive order has not imposed tariffs on precious metals. This has eased short-term pressure on silver, but it still faces multiple risks: industrial demand being suppressed by high prices, continued outflow of ETF funds, and while inventory has declined, it remains high. In contrast, gold benefits from central banks continuing to buy gold, hedging against geopolitical risks, and expectations of loose monetary policies, with potential for further upside. The report states that industrial demand is facing increasing pressure. JPMorgan Chase warned as early as December last year that the rising price of silver could threaten the demand for 50-60 million ounces in the solar industry in the coming years. With the continuous increase in silver prices, cost pressures are further highlighted. Currently, the cost of silver raw materials accounts for about 30% of the total selling price of solar panels, even if there is a slight increase in end-product prices, it is still difficult to fully pass on the rapid increase in costs. Industry measures have been gradually introduced, with many leading photovoltaic companies announcing the accelerated advancement of "silver substitute copper" technology replacement plans, and capacity conversion is expected to gradually take effect from the second quarter. Furthermore, there have been significant changes in the demand structure on the investment side. Although global silver ETF holdings are expected to increase by 278 million ounces by 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 27%, since the end of last year, the market has shown a clear price-volume deviation: silver prices have risen by nearly 25% after the holiday, while major silver ETFs have had a net outflow of about 18 million ounces during the same period. This phenomenon is in stark contrast to the "rising prices and volumes" pattern in the second half of last year, and the net long position of COMEX managed funds has been continuously reduced since mid-December last year, reflecting a shift in institutional investor attitudes toward caution.