Citic Securities: It is expected that the yield range of 10-year government bonds in 2026 will be between 1.5% and 1.8%, with a pace that may show a downward trend followed by an upward trend.

CITIC Securities pointed out that compared to the operating range of 1.6%-1.9% for China's 10-year government bond yields in 2025, we predict that the central yield in 2026 may decrease by 10 basis points, while maintaining a fluctuation space of around 30 basis points. In terms of operating pace, interest rates may show a "two-stage" characteristic: from the beginning of the year to the first half of the year, the expected implementation of reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts may push interest rates down; in the second half of the year, with the support of inflation rebounding on nominal growth, as well as the gradual conclusion of local government debt and improvement in credit expansion conditions, there may be temporary upward pressure on interest rates.