Guotai Junan Securities: The preventive rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve will continue, maintaining the view of 2-3 rate cuts in 2026.

Guotai Haitong Research Report pointed out that in the third quarter of 2025, the US economic data exceeded expectations, mainly due to the resilience of personal consumption, growth in public spending, and increased contribution from exports. However, it showed the characteristic of triple "K"-type differentiation, including differentiation of personal income and consumption, stratification of small and medium-sized enterprises' business climate, and differentiation between new and old economies. It is expected that after the short-term impact on the US economy in the fourth quarter, the overall resilience will still be strong. The proactive interest rate cut cycle will continue, maintaining the view of 2-3 interest rate cuts in 2026.