CICC Macro: Maintaining the view that the Fed will stay put in January, the next rate cut may come in March.

The Zhongjin Research Report pointed out that the actual GDP growth rate of the United States in the third quarter of 2025 increased to 4.3% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding market expectations. From a sub-item perspective, strong consumer spending and demand for AI-related equipment investments contributed significantly to the growth. However, investments in traditional industries continued to perform poorly, indicating a worsening pattern of uneven economic conditions. Imports have declined for two consecutive quarters, indicating that after the "import rush" at the beginning of the year, overall imports have slowed down. Although this GDP data is somewhat outdated, its resilience may suppress calls for a rate cut in the short term. Zhongjin maintains the view that the Federal Reserve will remain unchanged in January, with the next rate cut potentially in March.