Why are pig prices under pressure despite the peak season for the live pig market?

As winter approaches, pork consumption generally enters the peak season for sales, and prices will gradually rise. However, this year, the pork market is facing a situation where the peak season is not as prosperous. What are the reasons for the pressure on pork prices? According to pork salesmen, the current price of pork belly is around 9 yuan per half kilogram, while the price of pork leg is around 8 yuan per half kilogram, which is 3-4 yuan lower per half kilogram compared to the same period last year, but the sales volume is not as good as in the same period last year. Industry insiders say that the temperature drop in the southern part of China is slow, and the demand for preserved meat in the south is not releasing as expected. Additionally, next year's Spring Festival falls relatively late, delaying some of the concentrated purchasing demands, limiting the support for pork prices from the consumption end. The supply side is still under pressure, as the profitability of pork farming in the past two years has been relatively high, leading to industry capacity expansion. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national inventory of live pigs was 4.37 billion, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of the year, 530 million pigs were slaughtered nationwide, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year. As of the end of October 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, falling below 40 million for the first time in 17 months, but still exceeding the normal inventory level of 39 million.