The offshore and onshore Renminbi exchange rates against the US dollar separately rose above 7.03 and 7.04.

The offshore and onshore RMB to USD exchange rates have respectively broken the 7.03 and 7.04 levels. The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate, which reflects more on international investors' expectations, briefly surpassed the 7.03 level on December 22nd, reaching a high of 7.02955 during the trading session, marking a new high since October 3rd of last year. When analyzing the reasons for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate since November, Zhongjin Company pointed out in their research report that the recent trend may be mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar and the industrial fund settlement caused by the resilience in exports. On one hand, there is a possibility of passive appreciation of the RMB: the restart of the Fed's rate cuts in September and the easing measures brought by the change in the Fed Chairman have put pressure on the US dollar index, and the appreciation of the RMB against a basket of currencies is significantly weaker than against the US dollar, therefore there is a possibility of passive appreciation of the RMB against the USD. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, driven by the expenditure cycle of overseas capital brought by industrial transformation and upgrading, the expansion and deepening of the foreign trade market, and the reconstruction of the industrial chain, China's export resilience has been quite strong, while the YoY PPI has not turned positive and further increased the price advantage; however, imports have continued to decline due to weak domestic demand and factors such as domestic substitution. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar has increased the willingness of a huge surplus under the current account to settle, and the end of the year is also a seasonal peak for settlement, so it is not that surprising that the net settlement under the current account reached a historical high of $47 billion in October and November 2025, which may have further strengthened the appreciation trend in the near term.