The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 21%.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 21%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 79%. The probability of the Fed lowering rates by a total of 25 basis points by March next year is 47.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.4%, and the probability of a total of 50 basis points rate cut is 9.5%.