Goldman Sachs and Castle Securities analysts predict that the "Christmas rally" is imminent.
Traders have been speculating for most of December whether the typical year-end "Santa Claus rally" will arrive as scheduled, and now they may finally have their answer. The S&P 500 index rose 0.8% on Thursday, ending a four-day losing streak, after dropping earlier in the month. If history is any indication, the stock market may continue to rise: data compiled by Castle Securities show that since 1928, the S&P 500 index has a 75% probability of rising in the last two weeks of December, with an average increase of 1.3%. The trading team at Goldman Sachs, including Gail Hafif, wrote: "It would be hard to resist the favorable seasonal period we are about to enter, as well as more advantageous positioning, unless there is a major shock." "While we do not necessarily expect a significant increase, we do believe there is still room for growth from now until the end of the year."
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