Scholar: Gold prices may see a significant pullback in the first half of next year.

Zhang Ming, Deputy Director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Deputy Director of the National Laboratory for Finance and Development, pointed out that the current benchmark forecast is that the probability of the U.S. government further significantly escalating the tariff war before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections is low, and the probability of a significant increase in the global economic policy uncertainty index is low. The U.S. dollar index may fluctuate in the range of 95-100 by the end of 2026. If the above judgment is correct, it is not ruled out that there may be a significant adjustment in the global gold price in the first half of 2026. If the U.S. midterm election forces the Trump administration to reintroduce neighborly policies in the second half of 2026, the gold price may rebound. Of course, if there is an unexpected outbreak of intense geopolitical conflicts in the first half of 2026, or if the Trump administration starts using tariffs again from early 2026, a significant adjustment in the gold price may not occur.