Policy shocks compounded by shutdown aftershocks, institutions warn that non-farm data chaos requires careful interpretation.
1. Goldman Sachs: The delay in resignation plans will impact the total non-farm employment figures, but will not affect private employment data, which will provide a clearer indication of labor market conditions. Investors are advised to focus more on changes in private sector employment rather than overall data affected by policy factors.
2. Citigroup: The non-farm employment report may release more conflicting signals. It is expected that around 45,000 jobs will be lost in October, but there will be a rebound of 80,000 jobs in November, mainly influenced by seasonal adjustments rather than substantial improvement in labor demand. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%.
3. Credit Suisse: The number of non-farm jobs is expected to rebound by 70,000 in November, with weakness mainly due to the drag from the government sector; the unemployment rate is expected to slightly increase to 4.5%, and average hourly wage growth to increase to 0.3%.
4. Deutsche Bank: As the data was collected shortly after the end of the government shutdown, it should be viewed with caution, as there may be some distortions present.
5. Glassdoor Chief Economist Daniel Zhao: The employment report should be approached with caution and prepared for any outcome. The report is most likely to show steady job growth, but it is important to note that there are significant caveats to this data.
6. First Trust Advisors Chief Economist Brian Wesbury: Considering the significant shift from lenient immigration enforcement policies to stricter enforcement, the Trump administration's reduction in government employment, ongoing aging population, and job cuts due to artificial intelligence, job growth will slow down.
7. Investinglive analyst Justin Low: Data interpretation requires time, and the trend of a weak labor market may continue. Market participants are advised to wait until early next year to make judgments, rather than making decisions on this chaotic release day.
8. WisdomTree Director of Fixed Income Strategies Kevin Flanagan: The complexity of data collection due to the government shutdown has reduced the importance of this week's job report, with the focus shifting to employment data before the next Fed decision in early January.
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