The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%.

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.69%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a total of 25 basis points by March next year is 41.4%, keeping rates unchanged is 50.5%, and cutting a total of 50 basis points is 8.1%.