The market generally expects a high probability of the short-term appreciation of the Renminbi exchange rate breaking through the 7.0 level.

The recent acceleration of the appreciation of the renminbi has attracted market attention, and the discussion on whether it can "break through 7" against the US dollar is increasing. On December 4, the central parity rate of the renminbi against the US dollar was raised by 21 basis points to 7.0733, reaching the highest level since October 14, 2024. The onshore renminbi closed at 7.069 at 16:30 on the same day, down 29 basis points from the previous trading day. Since entering December, the renminbi has continued to rise, making the market optimistic about the future exchange rate trend. A survey of multiple experts by the First Financial found that with the increasing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, the concentrated surge of enterprise foreign exchange demand at the end of the year, and the stable domestic economic fundamentals, the market generally expects that the probability of the renminbi exchange rate breaking through 7.0 in the short term is high, but the long-term sustainability below 7.0 still faces multiple uncertainties. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated that with the recovery of the capital market, the attractiveness of renminbi assets has increased; the outline of the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" has been issued, which provides direction for economic and social development in the next five years, and has also strengthened market confidence in long-term stability and improvement of the Chinese economy, providing core support for the renminbi exchange rate.