Guangfa Securities: Hong Kong stocks may exceed 30,000 next year, pay attention to four major sectors.

Guangda Securities International stated that the Hang Seng Index is currently around 25700 points, similar to the company's full-year target of 25000 points for 2025. It believes that Hong Kong stocks may have the opportunity to reach levels above 30000 points again next year. The four key sectors to watch are Chinese financial, intelligent technology, energy and resources, and local finance. The bank's product development and retail research department expects that in the first half of 2026, major central banks will maintain loose policies to stabilize the economy. The US tariff policy and the record-breaking government shutdown may have short-term impacts on market sentiment, but the US may still cut interest rates once in the first half of next year, which will support capital flows to emerging markets and benefit the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets. The bank's securities strategist, Wu Lixian, mentioned that after the rebound in 2025, the Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is currently higher than the average of the past 5 years, deviating upwards by about one standard deviation. This reflects a slight correction in overall valuation, but it is still within a reasonable range. The technology index has just returned to the 5-year average, indicating that there is still room for valuation to catch up. As for the dividend environment of the entire market, although the Hang Seng dividend yield and the high dividend index's dividend yield have both fallen to around 3% and 6% respectively, they are still attractive compared to the current interest rate environment in mainland China.