Anthropic (ANT.US) races toward IPO at a trillion-dollar valuation; venture capitalist warns it could signal the peak of the AI rally

Jack Selby, head of venture capital firm Copper Sky, said on Wednesday that Anthropic PBC's (ANT.US) blockbuster initial public offering (IPO) could mark the peak of the artificial intelligence (AI) rally and may trigger a chain reaction of pullbacks once the initial lock-up period ends. The developer of the Claude chatbot Siasun Robot&Automation is seeking to raise a total of about US$100 billion through the IPO, a private placement, and a potential over-allotment option. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic's underwriters have indicated they expect to raise the offering price above the US$70 to US$78 range announced in filings earlier on Tuesday, which could push the valuation target to US$1.5 trillion or higher in the coming days. Anthropic is expected to officially list next week. Although early signs show strong market demand for this historic offering and reports suggest the deal size could expand, Selby remains skeptical. "If Anthropic's IPO performs poorly, then it will certainly be a very important participant in a major correction in the AI market," said Selby, who is also managing partner of Peter Thiel's family office. "If the IPO of the most closely watched AI company comes in far below expected valuations, just think about how far its share price could fall after the lock-up period ends." Selby has long been bearish on the AI trade. More than a year ago, he called the frenzy surrounding the sector the biggest bubble in the history of private technology investment. He again questioned the claim that AI demand is unlimited, and noted that Chinese models such as DeepSeek are about six months behind, posing another threat to Anthropic. "If their technology is six or nine months behind Anthropic, then what unique advantages does Anthropic's technology actually have that make it superior, or does its technology have national security value?" he said. As for whether he would invest in Asian AI trades, Selby said that if he could, he would "go heavily long on Chinese AI." He said Anthropic cannot claim that all of its business requires U.S. models, because most current use cases are general-purpose demand, which leaves room for arbitrage. He warned that the expiration of Anthropologie's lock-up period could put particularly heavy pressure on the share price. He said SoftBank Group and Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) are like canaries in a coal mine, serving as warning signals, with Oracle Corporation carrying greater risk due to its higher debt ratio. For investors who must hold AI assets, he recommended Alphabet Inc. Class C under Alphabet (GOOGL.US). Selby said Anthropic's revenue structure is one reason for his skepticism: more than 80% of revenue is non-recurring and vulnerable to competitors improving their technology. He said it would be a major concern if competitors erased a lead of just six or nine months; he added that capital expenditure is enormous because data, energy, data centers, and chips are all expensive inputs, and interest rates are no longer near zero. "Its capital expenditure intensity is too high," Selby said. "This is a real business, but it is still in its early stages, and the idea that it is a trillion-dollar business seems especially far-fetched."