Wall Street tech guru Dan Ives: SpaceX (SPCX.US) stock carries a 20%-25% "political discount," and a merger with Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is still possible

Dan Ives, a partner at investment firm Yorkville Ives and a well-known tech analyst, believes that SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares currently carry a 20% to 25% "political discount" as Musk's plans to build artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in Texas face a tougher political environment. Meanwhile, Dan Ives still expects SpaceX to merge with Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), but the deal will face more obstacles. Democrats either won or held governor seats in key data center states including Texas, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Ohio in the midterm elections. Among them, Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat who won the Texas governor's race, advocated stricter restrictions on data center development during her campaign. According to Wells Fargo & Company data, 27% of planned data center gigawatt capacity is located in Texas. In fact, related restrictions had already begun to tighten before the midterm elections. In September, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a pause on data center project permit approvals pending reviews of power and water demand. Dan Ives said in an interview that the midterm election results make SpaceX's expansion plans more difficult, especially in Texas, because SpaceX plans to build a large number of data centers in the state. He said: "I think there's about a 20% to 25% discount on SpaceX right now, which in some ways is almost a political discount that is emerging." Dan Ives added that Musk cannot simply move these expansion plans to Florida, and he expects the billionaire to negotiate with Texas officials. He said: "He'll come to the table. I do think there will be negotiations between the two sides." Gina Hinojosa has called for a pause on data center development until stronger safeguards are established for local residents. She also said she is willing to work with Musk's companies under conditions set by her administration. That statement indicates there is indeed room for negotiation between Musk and Texas. Meanwhile, SpaceX is seeking tax incentives for a US$24 billion power plant and supercomputing facility in Starbase, with a related hearing scheduled for December 9. Investors may be able to gauge the Texas state government's attitude toward SpaceX's expansion plans from the hearing results. It is worth noting that when asked whether orbital data centers could help SpaceX overcome the constraints facing ground-based construction, Dan Ives said the idea will still take years to realize. For now, the company needs to push forward construction in Texas. He said: "That's many years away. I mean, long term, I have no doubt about the direction. But near term, the key is still scaling construction in Texas." In addition, Dan Ives still believes SpaceX will merge with Tesla, Inc. Both companies have established special committees to study a potential merger. But SpaceX has cautioned that the deal may ultimately never happen. Completing a transaction would also require the necessary approvals from the relevant committees, boards and shareholders. Musk has publicly supported the idea, but he will not participate in committee discussions due to conflicts of interest. Although Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX were once regarded as two businesses that were largely independent, the boundaries between the two companies have gradually blurred as Musk continues to expand into areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), Siasun Robot&Automation, advanced manufacturing, satellite communications and computing infrastructureincluding data centers on Earth and potentially future data centers deployed in orbit. SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. already share AI ambitions through the Terafab chip manufacturing project underway in Texas. As for Tesla, Inc., Dan Ives supports the company's shift to Cybercab production and calls the Cybertruck a niche product. He believes autonomous driving and the Siasun Robot&Automation business will represent the future of Tesla, Inc., although he expects the transition will not be smooth. He said: "The future of Tesla, Inc. lies in Siasun Robot&Automation, autonomous driving and Cybercab."