Cui Dongshu: Automakers' "having more children" intensifies competition, with 129 new models launched in the first 10 months

Cui Dongshu: Automakers' "having more children" intensifies competition, with 129 new models launched in the first 10 months Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), wrote that recently the launch of new models in the traditional vehicle segment of the passenger car market has gradually slowed, while new energy vehicles have significantly increased new product launches. Currently, the products of major automakers are gradually entering a situation of "having more children to compete better," with automakers showing intense price competition and a trend of breaking out of traditional boundaries. In January-October this year, there were 129 new products in total, including 42 extended-range models, 26 more than the same period last year; 10 hybrid models, 10 more than the same period; 31 narrow-sense plug-in hybrid models, 6 fewer than the same period; 68 pure electric models, 11 more than the same period; and 9 conventional fuel vehicles, 4 fewer than the same period. Some of these new cars are new models, some are facelifted models with new names, and most are new energy models. In the past two years, the number of gasoline vehicles has decreased significantly compared with earlier periods, but this year many new hybrid models have been launched, reflecting a new approach of hybrids replacing fuel vehicles to achieve export breakthroughs. The factors for model classification are relatively complex, mainly considering vehicle length, wheelbase, price, the automaker's internal model gradient layout, and competitive relationships. Model classification based on vehicle length and wheelbase reflects the fit between new cars and the existing market, but new cars lead market changes, so it is also necessary to argue from the perspectives of manufacturer positioning and historical upgrade evolution. This prevents calculated results from deviating from mainstream industry views and also allows new cars to lead product changes in market segments. From the 2024-2026 data, the length of new passenger car models shows a significant "mid-to-large-size" trend, with the market center of gravity concentrating toward the 5-meter range. First, SUVs are the absolute main force and are expanding wildly. The number of new SUV models far exceeds sedans and MPVs, making SUVs the most densely launched category, and their 5-5.5 meter large-size trend is the most exaggerated, with the share soaring from 17% in 2024 to 56% in 2026; while the share of new 4.5-5 meter mid-size SUVs plunged from 72% to 45%. This shows that the SUV market has fully shifted to a high-profit melee of mid-to-large-size "large six-seat/seven-seat" models, and the compact-segment dividend has been exhausted. Conventional fuel vehicles have completely abandoned small cars and are holding firmly to mid-to-large sizes. New models under 4.5 meters have been zero for three consecutive years, with the main force entirely concentrated in the 4.5-5.5 meter range (accounting for over 80%). Under pressure from new energy vehicles, fuel vehicle makers can only maintain high premiums and profits by launching large-size models. New energy vehicles show an extreme "dumbbell-shaped" split. On the one hand, the number of new microcars under 4 meters and small cars of 4-4.5 meters has fallen off a cliff, affected by the reduction of subsidies and cost pressure, and automakers are accelerating their abandonment of the low end; on the other hand, large cars above 5 meters are booming, with their share soaring from 34% in 2024 to 58% in 2026. New full-size SUV/MPV products of 5.1 to 5.5 meters are densely clustered, becoming the core battlefield for automakers to compete on technology and protect profits. Meanwhile, the middle 4.5-5 meter market saw its share plunge from 55% to 40%, becoming the most fiercely competitive collapse zone. The new cars in October were basically large vehicles above 4.8 meters. The future potential for domestic car market penetration is huge, and what is needed is small cars. At the policy level, the development of economy cars should be encouraged as much as possible. Cui Dongshu suggests formulating economy car standards and encouraging the popularization of micro electric vehicles to replace low-speed elderly mobility vehicles as much as possible, so as to achieve domestic private car penetration and new energy vehicle overseas development. Especially with the new international tariff order, new energy vehicle exports should still consider the overseas route of "encircling the cities from the countryside," encircling developed countries from less developed countries, as directly attacking developed country markets is more difficult and risky. I. Why Are There So Many Launched Models? 1. Fine model granularity + all new car launch types -- finest segmentation This is the broadest count of new model launches, calculated by model variant, with each model launching several variants each time, hence the large number. In 2019, the annual total reached 3,202 models; in January-October this year there were 2,133 models, relatively fewer than the January-October periods of previous years. 2. Coarse model granularity + all new car launch types -- new model count This is a statistic of new models launched by manufacturers according to the model count, with each model including different powertrain types and variants under the coarsest model framework. The monthly and quarterly data are inconsistent, mainly due to non-duplicate calculation results. Therefore, the data are not simply additive. 3. There are many types of new car launches In January-October 2026, there were 129 truly new cars, accounting for 31% of the total 419 launched models of various types. Compared with previous years, the new car share has been in the 30%-34% range, and the 31% new car share in 2026 is relatively low. The relatively high number of launched models in 2026 are mainly parameter changes and supplementary models, which have low value and poor effect in driving consumption. 4. The new car statistic caliber is pure new models distinguished by powertrain -- medium model granularity + pure new cars Our new car statistic caliber is pure new models distinguished by powertrain, that is, pure new cars at medium model granularity (model + powertrain combination), excluding replacements, mid-cycle facelifts, annual models, parameter changes, etc. In January-October this year, there were 129 new products in total, including 42 extended-range models, 26 more than the same period last year; 10 hybrid models, 10 more than the same period; 31 narrow-sense plug-in hybrid models, 6 fewer than the same period; 68 pure electric models, 11 more than the same period; and 9 conventional fuel vehicles, 4 fewer than the same period. Some of these new cars are new models, some are facelifted models with new names, and most are new energy models. In the past two years, the number of gasoline vehicles has decreased significantly compared with earlier periods, but this year many new hybrid models have been launched, reflecting a new approach of hybrids replacing fuel vehicles to achieve export breakthroughs. The splitting of new models by powertrain mainly considers that powertrain form is an important feature of the current new energy transition. Some companies have large differences in powertrain forms for new cars and different launch rhythms. Therefore, splitting by the five major powertrain segments of new energy and fuel vehicles makes the new car statistics more standardized, but the count is therefore relatively high. II. Standardized Statistical Analysis of New Cars 1. Tracking of pure new cars by month over the years In Q1 2026, there were fewer new car releases, while Q2 and Q3 were relatively more. In October 2026, 17 new cars were released, a significant increase compared with the same period and maintaining a relatively high level in historical terms. In January-October this year, 129 new cars were released; in January-October last year, 108 new cars were released, so this year's new cars were 21 more than last year. 2. Tracking of new cars by brand type In 2026, the 102 new models from self-owned brands were somewhat fewer than last year, but new energy vehicles remain almost entirely dominated by self-owned brands. In 2026, joint venture automakers launched 18 new products, with the improvement mainly due to the comprehensive launch of new plug-in hybrid and extended-range products. In January-October this year, there were 9 new luxury car products, 2 more than the same period, basically all new energy; these new products are worth observing. 3. Analysis of vehicle lengths of launched passenger cars From the 2024-2026 data, the length of new passenger car models shows a significant "mid-to-large-size" trend, with the market center of gravity concentrating toward the 5-meter range. First, SUVs are the absolute main force and are expanding wildly. The number of new SUV models far exceeds sedans and MPVs, making SUVs the most densely launched category, and their 5-5.5 meter large-size trend is the most exaggerated, with the share soaring from 17% in 2024 to 56% in 2026; while the share of new 4.5-5 meter mid-size SUVs plunged from 72% to 45%. This shows that the SUV market has fully shifted to a high-profit melee of mid-to-large-size "large six-seat/seven-seat" models, and the compact-segment dividend has been exhausted. Second, both sedans and MPVs are moving toward "large-car exclusivity." Total sedan volume is declining, cheap sedans under 4.5 meters are nearly cleared out (only 3%), and the main force is entirely concentrated above 4.5 meters (accounting for over 90%). The total number of new MPV models has shrunk to single digits, but models above 5 meters account for as much as 89%, completely abandoning the small and medium-sized family positioning and becoming a purely high-end business/full-size niche market. 4. Analysis of vehicle lengths of launched new energy vehicles Conventional fuel vehicles have completely abandoned small cars and are holding firmly to mid-to-large sizes. New models under 4.5 meters have been zero for three consecutive years, with the main force entirely concentrated in the 4.5-5.5 meter range (accounting for over 80%). Under pressure from new energy vehicles, fuel vehicle makers can only maintain high premiums and profits by launching large-size models. New energy vehicles show an extreme "dumbbell-shaped" split. On the one hand, the number of new microcars under 4 meters and small cars of 4-4.5 meters has fallen off a cliff, affected by the reduction of subsidies and cost pressure, and automakers are accelerating their abandonment of the low end; on the other hand, large cars above 5 meters are booming, with their share soaring from 34% in 2024 to 58% in 2026. New full-size SUV/MPV products of 5.1 to 5.5 meters are densely clustered, becoming the core battlefield for automakers to compete on technology and protect profits. Meanwhile, the middle 4.5-5 meter market saw its share plunge from 55% to 40%, becoming the most fiercely competitive collapse zone. III. Industry Classification of New Car Levels 1. Current status of industry-standard models In recent years, there have been many new energy vehicle models, and how to classify them also requires multiple considerations. The main basis for classification calculation is the body style corresponding to vehicle CKH HOLDINGS length and wheelbase, while distinguishing between joint venture and self-owned categories. Price factors and displacement factors are really too complex, so they are temporarily used as reference indicators for disputed models. According to calculations, the vehicle length, wheelbase, and sales volume of each model currently sold in the industry are weighted and aggregated to derive the average length and wheelbase of each class by country and body style, serving as the standard car indicator for that segment. With the standard car indicator, the gap indicators in vehicle CKH HOLDINGS length and wheelbase among various model types are formed, creating the basis for rating calculations. 2. Current status of new models in October There were many heavyweight new models in October, with many highlights from self-owned and Volkswagen brands, forming an extension of model series. With the trade-in policy promoting replacement purchases, new products are clearly extending toward the high end. Facelifted new products of mainstream SUV models are relatively strong. New products from joint venture brands have certain competitiveness and meet diversified needs. However, the technological autonomy of joint venture new products is relatively passive, and the challenge of direct confrontation with new forces' new products is considerable. 3. Calculation of model decomposition -- vehicle length According to the comparison between each new car's vehicle length indicator and the standard indicators of each class, the indicator with the smallest vehicle length gap is found. Judging from vehicle length classification, some models have reference classifications, and most calculated classifications basically match intuitive positioning expectations. Recently, there have been many mid-size SUVs from self-owned brands, and they tend toward large-size design. Since the design goal of vehicles is to surpass competitors, the degree of model crossover is relatively large, making product comparison difficult. Some products are upgraded to a relatively large size but will be adjusted correspondingly to a reasonable competitive positioning one level lower. 4. New car classification -- wheelbase Due to differences in body design, the positioning range of models is calculated based on wheelbase. The calculation also basically has many marginal models. This month's main new products have relatively large differences in product wheelbase, electric vehicle product characteristics are obvious, price differences are large, and the situation is relatively complex. 5. Comprehensive comparative assessment of model classification Half of the new cars in October had downgrade considerations, mainly based on comprehensive consideration of vehicle length, wheelbase, price, the automaker's internal model gradient layout, and competitive relationships. Model classification based on vehicle length and wheelbase reflects the fit between new cars and the existing market, but new cars lead market changes, so it is also necessary to argue from the perspectives of manufacturer positioning and historical upgrade evolution. This prevents calculated results from deviating from mainstream industry views and also allows new cars to lead product changes in market segments. This month, there are many models whose classification is quite tangled. Domestic electric vehicles have relatively long wheelbases, creating an abnormal contrast for electric vehicles. Some models have long bodies but actually lower positioning and prices, so they are balanced to a lower level. Considering the characteristics of new car large-sizing by weak companies and the downturn in fuel vehicles, classification also needs joint discussion. At present, this classification is still in the discussion stage. Suggestions on classification are welcome, and everyone is invited to put forward opinions and suggestions. The suggested level for models will be determined according to disputed situations, so as to jointly assess product trends.