CRIC: Overall sell-through rate at new project launches in key cities was approximately 45.7% in October.

CRIC Real Estate Research stated in a report that new project launches in key cities in October continued the strategy of "small-batch, multi-batch additional launches." Within the key cities monitored in the report, 202 projects launched a total of 19,736 units; on a comparable basis, 179 projects launched a total of 16,997 units, with approximately 7,769 units subscribed, yielding an overall launch sell-through rate of approximately 45.7%, up approximately 3.1 percentage points from the previous month. The market is stabilizing at the margin, while differentiation between cities and projects remains significant. Table 1: Sell-through performance of new project launches in key cities in October 2026 Note: Excludes projects in Shanghai and Zhengzhou that were direct ongoing sales/straightforward launches (no effective sell-through rate); "Compared with last month" refers to the difference in the weighted sell-through rate on a comparable basis for the same cities as last month (newly monitored cities are indicated by ""). Source: CRIC Research Center and intercity institutional survey compilation. Table 2: Launch volumesell-through matrix for key cities Note: Divided by the median number of units launched this month (839 units) and the full-sample sell-through rate (45.7%); cells are, in order, number of cities, number of projects, units launched, weighted sell-through rate, and subscription share of the comparable sample. Source: CRIC Research Center compilation. Overall market characteristics: 1. Month-on-month totals show "shrinking volume, improving quality": comparable units launched in October contracted 24.5% month-on-month, while subscribed units fell 19.0% month-on-month; the contraction in subscriptions was smaller than the contraction in supply, and the recovery in the sell-through rate at the aggregate level was mainly driven by faster supply-side contraction (a narrower denominator), while demand remains generally weak. 2. City differentiation is obvious and does not fully correspond to city tier. Six citiesZhengzhou, Beijing, Xuzhou, Xi'an, Qingdao, and Wuhanranked at the top with outstanding performance, while Nanjing and Guangzhou were at the bottom with less than 20%. Compared with September, 13 comparable cities improved and 4 declined, with uneven hot and cold conditions across cities continuing. Divided by the median number of units launched this month (839 units) and the full-sample sell-through rate (45.7%), the five "high launch volume high sell-through" cities of Beijing, Xi'an, Wuhan, Shenzhen, and Shanghai contributed 60.4% of subscriptions; the five "high launch volume low sell-through" cities of Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Foshan, Jinan, and Guangzhou contributed only 24.8% of subscriptions. The mismatch between supply and demand was the main reason for sell-through pressure this month. 3. Launch and product structure: per-project launch scale remained mainly small to medium-sized (projects with 100 units accounted for 67.6% of the comparable sample), and the share of large-scale first launches was limited; products were mainly upgrade and first-home demand, with 110140 sq m first-upgrade and above-140 sq m upgrade products concentrated in core cities, and the scarcity of high-end large units becoming prominent in some cities. 4. Gaps between projects are obvious: the highest sell-through rate this period reached 100%, while the lowest was 0%, a spread of 100 percentage points; among the 179 comparable projects, 46 had sell-through below 15%, accounting for 25.7%, and nearly 33.5% of projects had sell-through below 20%. 5. Characteristics and commonalities of hot-selling projects: the 15 projects with a sell-through rate of 90% this period were highly concentrated in core locations of core cities and generally featured "strong location + strong brand + scarce product/reasonable pricing," indicating that real demand is still concentrating in high-certainty assets. Table 3: Selected hot-selling projects in key cities in October 2026 Source: CRIC Research Center and intercity institutional survey compilation. Structural characteristics (I) Comparison of sell-through performance between first-launch and additional-launch projects Table 4: Comparison of sell-through for first-launch and additional-launch projects in key cities Note: On a comparable basis (same as Table 1); "Compared with last month" refers to the difference in the weighted sell-through rate on the same basis as September. Data source: CRIC Research Center compilation. 1. First-launch projects generally performed significantly better than additional launches, with a weighted sell-through rate of 63.5%, approximately 31.2 percentage points higher than additional launches; however, the difference mainly came from project quality and weight distribution rather than the "first launch" label itselffirst-launch projects had a larger average launch per project (about 170 units/project, versus about 71 units/project for additional launches), and first-launch projects with strong locations and strong brands contributed the main subscriptions. 2. First-launch projects were "few but concentrated, with large dispersion": there were 43 first-launch projects this period, accounting for 24% of comparable projects and 42.9% of launched volume, while contributing 59.6% of subscriptions; sell-through rates ranged from 0% to 100%, a spread of 100 percentage points, and low sell-through projects also included some first launches. 3. Additional-launch projects showed "concentration at low levels, stable but on the low side": 136 additional-launch projects accounted for 57.1% of comparable sample launched volume and were the absolute mainstay of market supply, but their weighted sell-through rate was only 32.3%, the main drag on the overall sell-through rate; additional launches also included high sell-through samples (such as Shanghai Baoye Hongqiao Guozhan Li, etc.), indicating that additional-launch sell-through relies more on existing reputation, cost-effectiveness of remaining units, and location conditions. 4. Structural implication: the launch batch itself is not the determining factor for sell-through; whether price and product match real demand is key. Month-on-month, the sell-through rate for first launches edged up 0.6 percentage points from last month, while the sell-through rate for additional launches rebounded 4.5 percentage points from last month, with the first-launch lead maintained at more than 30 percentage points. The share of first-launch projects fell 3 percentage points from last month, and the pace of new project market entry slowed slightly. Tail risk mainly comes from additional launches: inefficient supply was more concentrated at the additional-launch end, with 77 additional-launch projects having sell-through below 30%, accounting for 59.7% of total additional-launch units but contributing only 24.8% of subscriptions; only 10 first-launch projects had sell-through below 30%, and their combined subscriptions accounted for only 2.9% of first-launch subscriptions. (II) Area segments: the dominance of mid-range upgrade products strengthened Table 5: Comparison of main launch area segments in key cities Data source: CRIC Research Center compilation. The area segments this period showed a different structure from the past: the 110140 sq m first-upgrade segment had the best sell-through, with a weighted sell-through rate of 52.2%, 6.5 percentage points higher than the full sample; above-140 sq m upgrade and above-200 sq m large units were in the middle; the 110 sq m first-home/first-purchase segment was weakest, with a weighted sell-through rate of only 21.3%, 24.4 percentage points lower than the full sample. Against a background of weak demand, small-unit first-home projects in far suburbs faced sell-through pressure, while the mid-range upgrade segment was steadier because it matched replacement and quality demandarea is not a case of "the smaller the better-selling." Month-on-month, the 110140 sq m first-upgrade segment was the only area segment to improve significantly, while both the below-110 sq m first-home segment and the above-200 sq m large-unit segment weakened, further strengthening the upgrade-led "strong middle, weak ends" structure. (III) Total price segments: high-end alone strong, low-total-price and middle segments both weak Table 6: Comparison of launch total price segments in key cities Note: Total price = transaction average price (lower bound of range) main area (midpoint of range); this is an estimate and is for segment reference only. Data source: CRIC Research Center compilation. Total price and sell-through rate show a non-linear relationship: the above-RMB 6 million segment had the highest sell-through rate, mostly supported by scarce products in core locations or high-net-worth customers; the RMB 2.54 million segment was a relative collapse zone, while the absolute low point remained below RMB 1.5 million, where first-home purchasing power is insufficient and upgrade customers are more willing to increase budgets to choose core locations, making the supply-demand mismatch most obvious. Month-on-month, the rebound in sell-through was concentrated at the low-total-price end, and the structural feature of the rebound was the release of first-home and low-total-price demand under "price for volume," while the high-end market did not recover in tandem. Among them, the below-RMB 1.5 million low-total-price segment improved 18.1 percentage points from last month, consistent with the targeting of policies such as interest subsidies and housing purchase subsidies mainly aimed at first-home first-purchase customers. (IV) Launch scale: the larger the per-project launch, the better the sell-through Table 7: Comparison of launch scale in key cities Data source: CRIC Research Center compilation. Per-project launch scale is positively correlated with sell-through rate: projects with 50 units had the lowest sell-through rate, while projects with more than 180 units had the highest. Larger-scale projects were mostly first launches or concentrated launches with strong locations and strong brands, daring to release volume and able to achieve high sell-through; small-batch ongoing-sales additional launches instead had weaker sell-through, indicating that launch scale itself is not a drag on sell-throughproject quality is key. (V) Sell-through distribution: polarization, with nearly half of projects below 30% Table 8: Sell-through distribution of launches in key cities Data source: CRIC Research Center compilation. The sell-through distribution remained polarized: more than 20% of projects achieved sell-through of 70% or above (hot-selling), accounting for 31.3% of launched volume; projects with sell-through below 30% accounted for 48.6% and 39.8% of launched volume. Compared with last month, the share of tail-end projects with sell-through below 20% narrowed sharply from 43.4% last month to 33.5%, while the share of hot-selling projects was basically flat from last month, indicating that the rebound in the overall sell-through rate in October was mainly contributed by improvement in middle-tier and tail-end projects, with polarization easing at the margin. In terms of subscription contribution, 21.2% of hot-selling projects contributed 56.3% of subscriptions, slightly lower than last month; the remaining projects with sell-through below 20% together contributed only 5.9%, and the concentration of subscriptions in a small number of high-certainty projects has not changed. Main factors affecting sell-through performance (I) Project cost-effectiveness and location are the primary factors determining sell-through Differences in sell-through within the same city are obvious. Taking Shanghai as an example, the Suhe Yan project achieved 100% sell-through, while the newly opened Fenglan Jing in the same city achieved only 6%; this reflects that customers' paying ability and product matching for scarce high-priced projects in core locations are actually higherlow price alone does not equal good sales, and location, supporting facilities, product strength, and price are equally key. (II) Launch scale and product structure significantly affect overall sell-through Nanjing and Guangzhou together launched 2,663 units, accounting for 15.7% of comparable sample launched volume, but their weighted sell-through rate was only about 17.9%. Against a background of weak demand, concentrated additional launches and a high share of upgrade and high-total-price products will significantly lower the overall sell-through level; by contrast, cities such as Zhengzhou, Beijing, and Xi'an achieved relatively high sell-through through high-quality supply in core locations, indicating that supply quality is more critical than supply quantity. (III) Policy impact: the policy backstop effect is appearing at the margin, but transmission is uneven October coincided with the National Day marketing window, and many cities continued policies such as "price for volume," housing purchase subsidies, housing voucher resettlement, and cuts to existing mortgage rates, providing some support for sell-through of first-home and upgrade projects in some cities, with the overall sell-through rate edging up from September. However, policy effects still need time to transmit and regional differentiation is significant: core districts and strong-brand projects in higher-tier cities benefited more obviously; lower-tier and far-suburban projects received limited boost, and Nanjing, Guangzhou, and others remained at sell-through troughs. Going forward, focus should be on the expansion of cities where subsidies and rate cuts are implemented and on execution efficiency. Summary and outlook The launch sell-through rate in key cities rebounded at the margin this month, but differentiation between cities and projects remains and overall demand is still weak; in terms of attribution, "product strength and timing take priority over city," and "product alignment market-entry timing" has stronger discriminating power: the sell-through rate for market entries in early October (including National Day) was only 25.9%, rebounding to 52.3% in mid-October and rising to 58.2% in late October. The National Day holiday was mainly for customer accumulation, with subscription conversion lagging to mid- and late October. Constraints and risks to watch: Concentrated sell-through pressureNanjing, Guangzhou, and others had sell-through below 20%, and more than 30% of comparable projects had sell-through below 20%, so tail risk still warrants vigilance; Short-term pulse effectOctober combined the National Day marketing window and the first month of policy implementation, and visits and subscriptions showed a short-term pulse, with the sustainability of real demand yet to be tracked; Data volatility risksingle-month sell-through rates in Shenzhen, Fuzhou, and Xi'an fluctuated by more than 20 percentage points, and some cities have small sample sizes and are easily disturbed by individual large projects, so single-month data should not be linearly extrapolated. 1. Short-term judgment: in November, developers' launches will still mainly be "small-batch, ongoing-sales additional launches," with first launches kept cautious and concentrated in a few higher-tier cities; under the combination of continued supply contraction and weak demand, the overall sell-through rate is likely to fluctuate around the current level, with differentiation between cities continuing, while differences between individual projects will mainly depend on pricing and product alignment. 2. Project level: upgrade projects in core locations with price advantages and strong product strength, as well as first-home projects with "low total price + mature supporting facilities," are expected to continue leading sell-through; far-suburban, high-total-price, large-area products lacking scarcity will face greater sell-through pressure. 3. Policy level: pay attention to the pace of implementation and city expansion of policies such as existing mortgage rates, purchase restriction relaxation, and housing purchase subsidies; their effect on releasing first-home and upgrade demand will directly affect year-end sell-through. 4. Key indicators to monitor going forward: the share of units in launched projects eligible for interest subsidies/subsidies and the share of first-home customer subscriptions; the launch pace of first-launch and additional-launch projects and changes in sell-through differences; the efficiency of bank interest subsidy/subsidy implementation in different cities; and the launch sell-through rate in mid-to-late November (non-holiday) to verify the sustainability of real demand after the "Silver October" pulse effect fades.