Strong overseas sales of COVID-19 vaccine: Moderna (MRNA.US) turns profitable in Q3 and significantly raises full-year revenue guidance

On November 6, before the U.S. market opened, Moderna (MRNA.US) reported its third-quarter 2026 results. The financial report showed that the company's total revenue was US$1.313 billion, up 29% year over year, far above the market expectation of about US$885 million; net profit was US$162 million, swinging to a profit from a net loss of US$200 million in the same period last year; diluted earnings per share were US$0.38, significantly better than the market expectation of a loss of US$1.25 per share. The company said revenue growth was mainly driven by strong international sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and deliveries of long-term strategic government cooperation orders in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and other countries. Revenue in the U.S. market in the quarter was US$780 million, and international market revenue was US$533 million. Profitability also improved: cost of sales was US$318 million (up 54% year over year, including US$65 million of third-party royalties); research and development expenses were US$583 million, down 27% year over year, mainly due to the winding down of late-stage clinical studies for some infectious disease pipelines and organizational cost reduction and efficiency gains; operating profit was US$130 million, compared with an operating loss of US$260 million in the same period last year. As of the end of September, cash and investments were US$8 billion, an increase from the previous quarter, mainly from net proceeds of US$2.6 billion from a convertible bond issuance, partly offset by US$950 million of litigation settlement payments and seasonal working capital usage. The company raised its full-year guidance, sharply increasing its 2026 revenue growth forecast from the previous "up to 10%" to 15%25%, and expects about half of revenue to come from the United States and half from international markets; R&D expense guidance was lowered from about US$2.9 billion to about US$2.7 billion; year-end cash and investments guidance was raised from US$4.7 billionUS$5.2 billion to US$8.1 billionUS$8.3 billion. On business and pipeline matters, CEO Stphane Bancel said the company already has five approved products: in August, the flu vaccine mFLUSIVA was approved by the U.S. FDA (for ages 5064, with accelerated approval for ages 65 and older), and was also approved in Canada; the flu/COVID-19 combination vaccine mCOFLU was approved in Canada (branded mCOMBRIAX in the EU), and is still awaiting review in Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia and other places. In the oncology pipeline, the personalized cancer vaccine intismeran, developed in collaboration with Merck & Co., Inc., achieved positive results in a Phase 3 melanoma clinical trial (data showed that combined with Keytruda it reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42%). However, the interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial of the norovirus vaccine mRNA-1403 did not meet the early success criteria, and the company will not add new study cohorts this quarter. Moderna's stock price has recently rebounded sharply from a 52-week low of US$22.28 to above US$220 due to the melanoma data.