Hope for US-Iran peace talks is rising! International oil prices fell for a second consecutive day, with WTI crude briefly dropping below $95.

International oil prices fell on Tuesday for a second consecutive trading day, as rising expectations that the US and Iran could end their eight-month conflict through diplomatic negotiations eased investor concerns about sustained disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. However, despite positive negotiating signals from both sides, the US is still carrying out limited military strikes on Iran and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf continue to be attacked, meaning significant uncertainty remains in the Middle East situation. As of press time, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $0.42 at $96.04 per barrel, having briefly fallen below $95 during intraday trading; international benchmark Brent crude futures were down $1.23 at $103.54 per barrel. Earlier, reports that the US and Iran had made progress in negotiations to end the conflict pushed oil prices further lower. On Monday, international oil prices had already fallen more than 7% after both Washington and Tehran expressed willingness to resolve the conflict through negotiations. US President Trump told reporters that day that he believed Iran wanted to reach a deal and said it was "possible" for the two sides to resolve the conflict through negotiations. Diplomatic efforts are also continuing. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday that the country is continuing to mediate between the US and Iran. A Qatari delegation has traveled to Tehran for talks, working to push for an agreement that can prevent further regional escalation and end the US-Iran conflict. Previously, international oil prices had been continuously pricing in a geopolitical risk premium due to market concerns that the US might expand military action against Iran again after Tuesday's midterm elections. Reports said the US government was formulating a new round of military strike plans against Iran, triggering investor concerns about further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Against this backdrop, international oil prices rose more than 10% in October. However, as the Trump administration has recently continued to signal a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, the market has begun to reassess the possibility of further escalation in the US-Iran situation, pushing back oil prices that had risen due to geopolitical risk. However, military risks in the Middle East have not been eliminated. According to media reports citing US officials, the US launched an attack on Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday. The officials also disclosed that US forces have been carrying out "limited strikes" on Iran in recent weeks. The report cited an anonymous official as saying that the US government deliberately kept the relevant military operations low-profile to avoid sending a signal to the outside world that it was preparing for a large-scale escalation of the conflict. Meanwhile, commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman still faces security threats. According to data from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), at least four attacks on commercial vessels have been reported in the region since early November, indicating that security risks in key energy transport routes remain. Although military operations have not completely stopped, the Trump administration has recently repeatedly emphasized the possibility of ending the conflict through diplomatic channels. US Vice President Vance said in an interview that he and Trump are both optimistic about the prospect of reaching a negotiated solution. "The president and I are both fairly optimistic about the prospects for a possible negotiated solution." US Secretary of State Rubio also said on Sunday that Trump wants to resolve the Iran conflict diplomatically and prefers to avoid further use of military force. It is worth noting that the US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy prices have become an important issue in US domestic economics and politics. Persistently high international oil prices have pushed up US gasoline prices and further intensified inflationary pressure, increasing the cost-of-living burden on consumers. As US midterm elections approach, the issue of energy prices has also become one of the political pressures facing the Trump administration. At the same time, the inflation risk brought by rising oil prices is affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Last week, two regional Federal Reserve presidents said that interest rates may need to rise further to curb inflation. Higher interest rates typically help curb inflation, but they also increase financing costs for businesses and consumers and weigh on economic growth. Therefore, whether international oil prices can continue to fall is not only related to US consumers' energy spending, but may also affect the market's judgment on the Fed's future rate hike path. Overall, the recent diplomatic easing signals from both the US and Iran are weakening part of the geopolitical risk premium in international oil prices, but US limited military strikes on Iran are still continuing, and key shipping channels also face security threats. Before a formal ceasefire or peace agreement is reached, Middle East energy supply risks may still cause sharp fluctuations in oil prices.