Record numbers of early voters in US midterm elections; Democrats lead by 12 percentage points.

More than one-fifth of registered voters in the US have already cast their ballots. With four days to go until election day, more than 48.5 million people have voted early in the midterms, breaking the record set in 2022. Democrats hold a 12-point advantage in early voting rates, close to the lead that foreshadowed Joe Biden's victory in 2020. Higher turnout is a good sign for Democrats but its predictive value is uncertain given changes in voter behaviour and the limitations of the available data. And the favourable national picture for Democrats masks some encouraging signals for Republicans in key Senate battleground states. "We know that early voters are more Democratic, that's been a feature of elections for some time now," said Michael McDonald, director of the University of Florida's election lab. "By the time we get to election day, the electorate is going to shift very dramatically in a red direction. So Democrats have to build up a lead in early voting to withstand what's going to happen on election day." In the 27 early-voting states that track voter registration by party, 44 per cent of early in-person and absentee ballots were cast or returned by registered Democrats, versus just 32 per cent by registered Republicans according to data compiled by McDonald's lab. The Democratic turnout boost is most pronounced in states such as Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska Great Plains states that typically elect Republicans but have unexpectedly close Senate races this year. But in Florida, Michigan and Texas there are signs that Republican voters are returning to the early and absentee voting they shunned in recent years. A decade ago, acceptance of early and mail voting was bipartisan. Then came the pandemic-disrupted 2020 election: large numbers of Democrats embraced mail voting as a Covid precaution while many Republicans opted to vote in person on election day. But as pandemic-era habits fade from memory, more Democrats are returning to election-day voting and more Republicans are casting ballots early according to Tom Bonier, senior adviser at Democratic data firm TargetSmart. Voters of both parties are less likely to vote by mail. McDonald said mail-ballot requests are down in many states, partly because a Florida law now requires voters to reapply for mail ballots every two years. Those who do request mail ballots are returning them faster and in greater numbers; others are finding other ways to vote. "They're voting in person," said Greg Landsman, a Democratic congressman from Ohio, this week. "It says something about the concerns about this election and people wanting to make sure their vote is counted." President Donald Trump blamed mail ballots for his 2020 re-election loss and vowed to crack down on the practice. His efforts to get the US Postal Service (USPS) to pre-screen ballots for validity have been blocked by courts, but Democrats in Congress are investigating whether the USPS is seeking to circumvent those court orders. Postal officials say they are processing election mail as normal but encouraging voters to return ballots early. Mail voting is highest among older voters: in the 14 states for which data is available, 54 per cent of mail ballots came from voters aged 65 and over. Campaigns like early voters because it allows candidates to "bank" support, reducing the risk of losing votes to bad weather, disasters or other unexpected events. Campaigns can also focus their get-out-the-vote efforts on making sure lower-propensity voters show up on election day. Early voting numbers have become the favourite intelligence source for politics junkies looking for signals beyond polls and prediction markets. But the data can be inconsistent or even contradictory between states, and early voters tend to be partisans whose votes were unlikely to change hands anyway. Here are the key takeaways from a handful of states with Senate or House battleground races: Georgia: Across the Deep South, high turnout among Black voters has boosted Democrats enthusiasm fuelled by a backlash against Republican attempts to gerrymander formerly Black-majority districts. Non-partisan election data firm L2 estimates a 14-point Democratic advantage. Pennsylvania: In the state with multiple competitive congressional races, Democrats account for 65 per cent of all early votes cast, versus just 25 per cent for Republicans the largest Democratic advantage in the country. The trend extends even to western rural counties that have swung sharply Republican over the past decade. Florida: Republicans have overtaken Democrats in early voting rates as registered Republican voters surged to early-voting centres this week. But the lead remains small given the Republican registration advantage. Republicans had a 6.4-point advantage in early voting four years ago; it is now 2 points. Texas: More than 6mn early voters have turned out in the high-profile Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, equivalent to 84 per cent of total votes cast in the last midterm election. While L2's model shows a 5-point advantage for Democratic voters, Republicans are outperforming their share of the electorate. Michigan: Another relative bright spot for Republicans comes in the tight race for the state's Senate seat between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. Even though there are more Democrats than Republicans in the state, L2's model estimates 30 per cent of Republican voters have cast early ballots, versus 23 per cent of Democrats. Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska: In these Great Plains states with unexpectedly tight Senate races, Democrats are outnumbered but have nearly matched or surpassed Republican early voting rates.