NBS Interpretation: Purchasing Managers' Index Declined in October

On October 31, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted China's Purchasing Managers' Index for October 2026. In October, affected by factors such as the early release of some demand before the National Day holiday and the complex and volatile international environment, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%. New growth drivers maintained relatively rapid growth. The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing were 51.3% and 50.6%, respectively, continuing to stay above the critical point. Production and operations of enterprises in related industries remained in expansion, and new quality productive forces continued their sound development momentum. The PMIs for the consumer goods industry and the high energy-consuming industry were 48.8% and 47.3%, respectively, down 1.9 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening in market activity. The full text is as follows Purchasing Managers' Indexes Fell in October Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, Interprets China's Purchasing Managers' Indexes for October 2026 On October 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released China's Purchasing Managers' Indexes. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation. In October, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 49.3%, 49.7% and 49.7%, respectively, down 0.8, 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the level of economic prosperity declined from the previous month. I. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index declined In October, affected by factors such as the early release of some demand before the National Day holiday and the complex and volatile international environment, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%. (1) Both supply and demand slowed. The manufacturing production index and new orders index were 49.8% and 49.4%, respectively, down 1.9 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, the production index and new orders index for industries such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and equipment, and computer, communications and electronic equipment were all at 53.0% and above, indicating relatively high production and demand activity; the production index and new orders index for industries such as textiles, non-metallic mineral products, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were all below the critical point, indicating weakness at both ends of production and demand. (2) New growth drivers maintained relatively rapid growth. The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing were 51.3% and 50.6%, respectively, continuing to stay above the critical point. Production and operations of enterprises in related industries remained in expansion, and new quality productive forces continued their sound development momentum. The PMIs for the consumer goods industry and the high energy-consuming industry were 48.8% and 47.3%, respectively, down 1.9 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening in market activity. (3) Price indices fell from high levels. The purchasing price index for major raw materials and the ex-factory price index for manufacturing were 56.8% and 51.7%, respectively. Affected by the recent decline in prices of some commodities such as non-ferrous metals, they fell 4.0 and 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, but remained in the expansion range, and the increase in manufacturing market prices narrowed. By industry, as international crude oil prices continued to climb, both price indices for industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and chemical fibers and rubber and plastic products continued to remain at high levels above 60.0%. (4) Large enterprises continued to expand. The PMI for large manufacturing enterprises was 50.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the expansion range; the PMIs for medium-sized and small enterprises were 48.4% and 47.5%, respectively, down 1.3 and 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, with prosperity levels declining in both. II. The non-manufacturing business activity index declined In October, affected by factors such as the decline in prosperity of some service industries, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. (1) The service industry business activity index was at the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in service industry prosperity amid stability. By industry, the business activity indices of major service industry categories all rebounded. Among them, the business activity indices for industries related to travel and consumption during the National Day holiday, such as railway transportation, accommodation, and culture, sports and entertainment, rebounded significantly and were all in the expansion range, indicating increased market activity; the business activity indices for industries such as waterway transportation, postal services, and internet software and information technology services were all in the relatively high prosperity range above 55.0%, with related enterprises seeing relatively rapid growth in total business volume; only the business activity index for the financial industry declined, and by a relatively large margin, which was also the main reason for the slight decline in service industry prosperity this month. The business activity expectations index for the service industry was 55.2%, continuing to remain in the relatively high prosperity range, with most enterprises maintaining confidence in the development of the service industry market. (2) The construction industry business activity index declined. The construction industry business activity index was 48.0%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that construction activity slowed on a month-on-month basis. The construction industry business activity expectations index was 52.3%, down 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to remain in expansion. III. The composite PMI output index declined In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises slowed somewhat. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 49.8% and 49.7%, respectively. This article was edited from the "National Bureau of Statistics"; GMTEight editor: Zhang Jinliang.